Cedars, December 2018

December 2018 7 ANALYSIS Space Race Revived Proposed space force could shape future of international relations by Jacob Oedy “S pace: the final frontier...,” “A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away...” These famous phrases may belong to science fiction franchises, but they may also be the first thing some- one imagines after hearing about President Trump’s recently initiated Space Force. The program, officially announced by Vice President Mike Pence in August, will create a sixth branch of the United States Armed Forces. However, few Americans have an accurate perception of the new pro- gram’s purpose and function. “When you start talking about Space Force, you start getting this vision of sci- ence fiction movies where there are armed soldiers in orbit around the earth fighting each other,” said professor of physics Dr. Steven Gollmer. “And it’s not anything of that category.” Instead, the program will be focused on launching and protecting space infra- structure, such as the satellites that support the country’s GPS. Despite concerns over budgets and the necessity of creating an in- dependent military branch, both parties of the government see necessity in protecting its orbiting investments and equipment, according to political science professor Dr. Glen Duerr. “There’s a realization broadly across Republicans and Democrats that some- thing needs to be done in the space theater,” Duerr said. “It is heavily underway. It will probably be here in 2019 or 2020.” Duerr explained that the initiative comes in response to a rapidly changing ar- ray of technological weaponry. He cited cy- ber-warfare, unmanned vehicles, and growth in robotics as examples of new developments that have made space a potential arena for attacks. Programs such as GPS and satellites are vital to America’s economy, culture, and military, and new technology could pose a se- rious threat to those services. Although the United States has signed a UN resolution against the militarization of space, the motion does not take a concrete stance on anti-satellite missiles. “We have, and China has, tested the ability to knock a satellite out,” said Gollmer. “And as soon as you start thinking in terms of destroying satellites in orbit, all of a sudden you’re pushing that line of what’s considered using space as a military platform.” An attack on U.S. satellites would poten- tially cripple both the military and economic capabilities of the country. The Space Force would be tasked with the protection of satel- lites and the ability to respond in the event of an attack on outer-space infrastructure. The program also must consider and prepare for another aspect of space warfare, said Gollmer: the fallout that gets left behind. “The ability to knock out a satellite with a missile leaves debris behind,” Gollmer ex- plained. “When the United States tested out their capability they did it with a satellite that was initially going out of orbit anyway, so any debris that was generated [would burn up upon reentry]. When China did their test, they did it on a high orbit satel- lite … when they destroyed it they generated lots of fragments of debris, which are still orbiting and will be in orbit for centuries.” Satellite debris could cause pollution of important orbits, further inhibiting GPS and other satellite functions. Some scien- tists have called upon the Space Force to prevent such pollution from occurring. Meanwhile, political scientists are studying how the creation of an official mil- itary branch affects other countries and in- ternational law. While the United States will be the first country to create a new branch for military space operations, other coun- tries have already integrated space into oth- er military branches. “The Chinese view it as information; the Russians view it as an extension of air- space,” said Duerr. “We are creating some- thing separate. In creating the Space Force, Russia and China will be able to say ‘Look, the United States has moved first and mili- tarized it.’ We are saying ‘Look, we are just adapting to what Russia and China have al- ready done.’” While the UN has set up regulations on military activity in space, countries have already considered developing individual space stations, including potential bases on or around the moon. As long as these stations are constructed with the purpose of scientif- ic research and development, they do not violate international law. But what will stop countries from also using these bases for mil- itary purposes once they are constructed? “There’s a level of might makes right,” said Duerr. “If China were to set up stations, or Russia, who’s going to stop them?” Duerr also brought up recent disagree- ments between the U.S. and China over the neutrality of oceans. “If China doesn’t abide by national law on earth, they’re not going to in space,” said Duerr. “There will be reactions. If China and Russia begin doing things, then the United States will follow. If the United States does something proactively, China and Russia will likewise follow. It’s going to require in- ternational law to catch up.” If the UN fails to prevent the develop- ment of space warfare, advanced weapons and technology could cause untold catastro- phe. “The weaponization of space, taking down satellites, nuclear blasts in the atmo- sphere or in space are all deeply concerning and would have fallouts that we can’t nec- essarily predict,” said Duerr. “If there’s ever a detonation of a nuclear bomb or even of a mini-nuke, there’s a good chance that it would set off a chain of others. It would be a giant step back.” To avoid the risk of an apocalyptic war, the United States will need to carefully de- fine and utilize the developing Space Force. If utilized correctly, the program could set an international precedent for peace and preservation. Gollmer discouraged viewing the program in the same light as other mil- itary branches, but instead encouraged its use in the development, curation and pro- tection of the final frontier. Jacob Oedy is a freshman journalismmajor and a staff writer for off-campus news and arts and entertainment. He enjoys creative writing, quoting “Psych,” and hanging out with the best hall on campus, Brock 3 East. Public domain photo courtesy of NASA President Trump holds up Space Policy Directive - 3 after signing it. This policy provides guidelines for the U.S.’s leadership in management of space traffic and debris.