Cedars, March 2019

March 2019 9 ANALYSIS A Tale of Two Presidents The escalating crisis in Venezuela by Breanna Beers V enezuela’s government and economy have been burning slowly for the past decade. Now the embers have ex- ploded into a full blaze. With refugees fleeing by the thousands, a famished population ri- oting in the streets, and two presidents each recognized by different international powers, the road to recovery looks long and steep. How it all started: Nicolás Maduro won the Venezuelan presidency in 2013 as the natural successor to long-time leader Hugo Chávez, a charismatic anti-establishment leader who consolidated tremendous power around the presidency and radically shifted Venezuela’s political trajectory. Chávez was outspoken in his support of the indigenous people, and his populist message resonated with the struggling lower classes in Venezuelan society. He delivered on his promises and provided significant relief to massive swaths of the population, subsidizing oil down to 14 cents a gallon. However, the welfare state was poorly man- aged, dependent on corruption, and funded by oil. Thus, when oil prices collapsed in 2014, so did the Venezuelan economy. Maduro’s 2013 election was hotly con- tested. Though he shared Chávez’s vision, he didn’t share his natural charisma or Catho- lic background. When oil prices plummeted only one year into his administration, he ran out of cash to pay for both subsidies for his support and bribes for his protection. Panicked, he printed more money, which spiked inflation. Unrest grew, leading Mad- uro to lean increasingly on purchased power he couldn’t actually pay for. So far in 2019, the Venezuelan inflation rate has hit 2.69 million percent. According to a 2016 study, 64 percent of Venezuelans reported losing weight (25.1 pounds on aver- age) due to being unable to buy food, which is now both expensive and scarce. NPR re- ported that lack of medicine resulted in over 6,500 instances of measles and more than half a million cases of malaria in 2018— both fatal diseases formerly eradicated in Venezu- ela. Violence, riots and protests are common- place. Gang rule and black markets abound. Over three million refugees have already fled the country, over one million of which cur- rently live in neighboring Colombia. This January Maduro faced a challenge to his leadership when Juan Guaidó was elected leader of the National Assembly. Guaidó immediately declared Maduro’s con- troversial 2018 re-election a fraud and swore himself in as president, invoking an constitu- tional article that names the National Assem- bly leader de facto president in the absence of a legitimately elected president. Following Guaidó’s action, other na- tions rushed to declare their support for one president or another. The U.S., several Eu- ropean countries, and most of Latin Ameri- ca recognize Guaidó. Russia, China and the left-wing Latin American countries known as the Pink Tide maintain the legitimacy of Maduro — some suggest with a little incen- tive from Venezuela’s gold reserves, still un- der Maduro’s control. Guaidó’s action finally brought years of conflict and crisis to a political head. Duerr described the situation as “a slow train wreck” — the world has seen it coming for years now. “It is coming to a very nasty collision,” said Dr. Glen Duerr, international studies professor at Cedarville. “Either Maduro is going to become a dictator and you’re go- ing to see violence grow heavily in the short term, or he’ll flee, and Guaidó will have to try and pick up the pieces somehow.” Currently, Maduro is struggling to maintain his hold on some semblance of power. The New York Times described the paradox of Maduro’s government as “too authoritarian to coexist with democratic institutions, but too weak to abolish them without risking collapse.” Faced with oppo- sition both domestically and international- ly, he will likely require support from Russia or China to stay in power as dictator. However, even if Guaidó can successfully take control, still more demanding challenges lie ahead. Experts estimate that up to 90% of Venezuelans now live below the poverty line. If Maduro loots the government’s reserves and flees the country, the new administration may be as bankrupt as its citizens. Even so, Guaidó will have to find some way to supply food and medicine, deal with violence and chaos, fix the hyperinflation, or- ganize a new election, and re-establish trust in democracy. The new government will have to reshape an entire political and economic system, adjusting the expectations of both citizens and officials used to handouts. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of international powers both financially and politically invested in the out- come of this conflict. International studies professor Dr. Christine Kim expressed con- cern that foreign involvement at this crucial stage may do more harm than good. “It should be the people who decide the country’s future direction,” Kim said. “The people of Venezuela should choose their own leaders through its own constitution- al law and according to their own volition. Otherwise, Venezuela may end up being an- other field of proxy war in the 21st century.” The ideological and economic reasons international powers typically get involved in crises like this one rarely consider the ul- timate good of the people involved. Venezu- ela is being forced to navigate treacherous waters both domestically and international- ly. If mismanaged, some fear it could break into outright civil war. Whatever happens next, Venezuela has a long road ahead be- fore recovering the trust of the people and the security of the nation. Breanna Beers is a sophomore molecu- lar and cellular biology major and a staff writer for Cedars. She loves exercising cu- riosity, hiking new trails, and quoting “The Princess Bride” whether it’s relevant or not. (937) 766-9852 105 W Xenia Ave, Cedarville, OH 45314 From oil changes to brake jobs we have proudly served the Cedarville community for over ten years. Free shuttle service for University students!