Cedars, October 2020

20 Is voting by mail a good idea? The benefits of mail-in voting are obvious, especially during a pandemic: safety, accessibility and public health. But what about the drawbacks? Myths around voting by mail abound, most notably the claim that mail-in ballots are a major source of fraud. Despite what the media or the president might claim, fraudulent voting is almost non-existent in the United States, let alone significant enough to turn an election. The Heritage Foundation, a conservative policy think tank, reports only 1,298 allegations of voter fraud in total since 2000. Just over 200 of those were due to fraudulent use of absentee ballots. Even the highest estimates peak at less than 500 cases of fraud out of the roughly 250 million mail-in votes cast over the last two decades: 0.0002%. That’s not to say mail-in voting is a perfect system. Mail-in ballots take longer to review and count, which led to massive delays in some of this year’s primaries. In some cases, results were not announced for over a month. With all the scrutiny of a presidential election, such delays could mean pandemonium. The outcome of election night could gradually reverse over time as votes are tallied. In key battleground states, high-stakes, drawn-out court battles could ensue. The longer the election is prolonged, the greater the mounting tension, and the more invested each party will be to VOTING BY MAIL Over 75% of American voters will be eligible to vote by mail this November as states scramble to adapt to a pandemic in the middle of one of the most controversial elections in recent history. By Breanna Beers continue the dispute. Government preparation and voter education are both necessary to mitigate these challenges, but they are unlikely to be completely avoided. It’s very possible that election day turns into election weeks. Given the current political climate in the country, those weeks could be a tense wait. How will it influence the election? In the past, mail-in voting has not favored one party over the other. This year, however, voting by mail is tied to a pandemic, and the pandemic has been pulled into politics as a tool for either side to leverage against the other. While mail-in voting has not historically led to a long-term increase in voter turnout, it can give a temporary bump in public participation. Turnout in several states reached record highs during primary elections, and this increase is expected to hold through November. According to political science professor Dr. Mark Caleb Smith, increases in voter turnout have typically benefited the Democratic Party, while Republicans are more likely to vote consistently regardless of broader circumstances. This effect may be amplified by the pandemic this year, given the generally higher degree of concern about COVID-19 among Democratic voters. Smith said this may be partly why President Donald Trump has been so vocal in his opposition tomail-in voting: it could be perceived as a threat. “President Trump knows his base of voters are going to turn out no matter what,” Smith Analysis: