Spring 2022 22 Is Congress Due for a Red Wave? The Potential Consequences of the Upcoming Midterms By Esther Fultz Presidential elections get a lot of attention, both by the media and voters. Midterm elections, while less publicized, play an equally important role, giving Americans the opportunity to rearrange the political makeup of Congress, both in the House and the Senate. With midterm elections approaching this year, Americans are already discussing possibilities and predicting outcomes. “Historically, it is more common that the party represented in the White House will lose seats in Congress in the midterms,” said Dr. Robert Clark, assistant professor of History at Cedarville University. According to Clark, several factors point toward such an outcome in 2022, including the pandemic, which has impacted both congressional and presidential approval ratings. “Biden came in as president with a strong agenda to help Congress work together between the parties and create bipartisan legislation,” Clark said. While some success has been achieved in this area, much more has been promised. Whether the Democratic Party and the American public at large will be satisfied with these results remains to be seen. “I think it will be a Republican year,” said Dr. Kevin Sims, senior professor of Political Science at Cedarville University. “A number of long-time serving Democrats in the House of Representatives have announced their retirement because they think they’re going to lose. I’m predicting a huge Republican turnover, and by that I mean anywhere from 60 to 80 seats.” According to Sims, it’s not unusual for 20 to 30 seats in the House of Representatives to change in a normal year, and these trends are likely to be exaggerated due to the challenges associated with the first year of the Biden administration. Sims and Clark agreed that outcomes in the Senate are difficult to predict. Clark mentioned divisions within the Republican Party as a determining factor in the election, describing what he considers three groups of Republicans: Trump-supporting populists, moderate business Republicans and traditional right-leaning conservatives. “Currently, we have a 50/50 split in the Senate,” Sims said. “I think there is a strong possibility the Republicans will take control of the Senate just because everything else has gone so poorly for the Democrats, but I don’t think there will be anything like a 20seat pickup.” In respect to midterm preparation efforts, both Republicans and Democrats are urging voters to consider the past. Democrats are emphasizing the positive changes that have taken place within the last year while Republicans emphasize shortcomings of the Democratic Party and stress areas for improvement. According to Clark, the Democratic party is trying to show that it’s the party of good governance and making progress. Highlighted achievements include leadership through the pandemic and passing legislation. “The Democratic Party wants to show that its leadership has been handling current circumstances as effectively as possible, that it’s dangerous to switch jockeys in the middle of this horse race,” Clark said. Meanwhile, Republicans seek to draw attention to disunities that exist within the Democratic Party. “The Democrats failed to pass their biggest legislative benefit package not because of the Republicans but because two Democrats refused to vote for it,” Clark said. This is an easy opportunity for Republicans to criticize Democrats and remind the American public of what they will achieve as a result of working together as a party when they are in power. Other common areas of Republican criticism include inflation rates and supply chain issues. “Inflation is somewhere around The rising inflation rates could be a major factor in the upcoming midterm elections.
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