Channels, Fall 2017

Page 94 Beck, Diza, Searl • Bridges and Bandits Summary of Data As is clear from the data sets from Germany and Turkey, the strong linear relationship anticipated between immigration and terrorism can be present in certain conditions. Germany displayed the strongest correlation such that 90% of the variance in terrorism incidents can be explained by the inflows of asylum seekers. Turkey’s correlation was also strong to the point that 55% of the variance in terrorism incidents can be explained by inflows of asylum seekers. 39 Other than Germany and Turkey, every country shows a weak correlation between asylum seeker inflow and terrorism incidents. Given that the f score for Germany and Turkey exceed the critical value, we can say that this correlation is not due to chance. The question, then, is why Germany and Turkey display these uncharacteristically strong correlations. Some potential variables could be proximity to terror-prone areas, the vetting procedures used, immigration policy, or proportion of asylum seekers allowed in from terror-producing countries. The variable most likely to exert the most influence is the proportion of asylum seekers from terror-prone countries. Looking at this data as a percent (percentage of asylum-seekers coming from Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Syria), it is clear that Germany is far above other countries in terms of accepting migrants from terror-prone areas since 2006. This finding would indicate that the proportion of asylum- seekers from terror-prone countries is a strong predictor of future terrorist activity. However, in spite of its numerous terrorist attacks, Turkey’s migration levels from terror- prone nations have not been outside the normal range of the other nations considered in the study. A possible explanation for this phenomenon is that the terror attacks Turkey has 39 The level of risk for this study was p = .05.