The Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Creationism (2018)

the crossmatching characteristics of numerous tree ring series such that they would all decisively “come together” into a strong master chronology (the clusters/ “cores” of the Disturbance- Clustering hypothesis), all the while satisfying all of the other dendrochonological criteria (gateway statistics) for correctness? To help answer these questions, fifteen TRN series were selected that supposedly lived at very different times (Table 1). Each was limited to about 100 years in length in order to alleviate the labor- intensiveness of the experimental procedure. Roughly one ring per decade was perturbed (the 5 th , 16 th , 24 th , etc., of each respective series). The intervals between perturbations were eyeball-chosen so that no obvious repetition (cyclicity) be introduced in the ensuing crossmatches (later verified by the absence of obvious stepwise-recurrent patterns of the OVL, of successively weaker potential crossmatching points, as identified by CDendro). The first letter or number of the series identification, for the experimentally- altered trees, was changed to “Z” in order to distinguish it from the original series in the TRN collection. The ring widths chosen for experimental perturbation ring were arbitrarily but consistently reduced to 25% of their respective original values. (Greater reductions of original ring width, which probably would have yielded more distinctive results, were avoided in order to avoid potentially-skewed results—a lack of skewing later verified anyway by the results of the small-ring-insensitive P2YrsL and Besancon algorithms in CDendro.) In order to evaluate the robustness of the Disturbance-Clustering hypothesis, in the face of disturbances that potentially fail to materialize, several of the series had intentionally-omitted disturbances, at a rate of 1 in 10, 2 in 10, and then 3 in 10. (More than 3 in 10 was not attempted). All fifteen of the series were first crossmatched individually. Fifteen trials were conducted using the CDendro P2Aut at t≥7.0, with all 15 series allowed, in turn, to serve as the “seed”. This was done in order to unmask any dependence upon the order of added series. In order to further test the sensitivity of the master chronology—this time in terms of fully-disturbed constituents (or lack thereof)--this experiment was repeated with the involvement of only those twelve series that contain omitted disturbances. The “seed” was Z022135A, which lacks 2 of the 10 experimentally- inflicted disturbances. 2. Results and Implications of the Experimental False Master Chronology Without the experimental alterations, the fifteen ostensibly- noncontemporaneous series, at the attempted single-pair trial crossmatching at the full-length 99 or 100-year overlaps, are nonexistent (with (r) usually far less than 0.3 and (t) usually far less than 3.0) as conventionally expected. Now, thanks to the alterations, most of the pair-crossmatches are more than satisfactory (P2YrsL t>7.0 and often >>7.0). This significantly extends my earlier preliminary results from bristlecone pine. The experimental outcome of the false master chronology (Table 1) surpassed my wildest expectations. Merely one 75%-reduced ring- width, consistently spaced per decade from tree to tree, is all that it took to induce all fifteen series to coalesce into a robust but false master chronology. Moreover, all the altered series now crossmatch, usually at high-t levels, with the faux master chronology they have created, and with nearly all in full accordance with the multiple CDendro crossdating algorithms. [The last listed series fails Skel- Ch2, and the last two listed series fail Besancon, though not by much (4.5 and 4.7).] What’s more, the average r-value (not shown), for the individual series’ crossmatches (excluding itself) with the master chronology, is an impressive 0.77. The internals of the series/master crossmatches (not shown) are also outstanding. Virtually all 50-year-lag-10 segments correspond to their opposites at the block test (50 years lag 10, r≥0.30). The series that comprise the faux master chronology clearly “belong” with each other. Any of the fifteen series can be chosen as the “seed”, and the results are identical. In fact, the same 13 of the 15 series are always “attracted” to the “snowballing” master chronology, at the highest default settings, regardless of the chosen “seed”. This indicates that at least 13 of the 15 constitute a “natural” assemblage, whose members instantly “recognize” each other. Note that this instant “self-recognition” is a characteristic of the “cores” of actual submaster chronologies, and that this process maps perfectly unto the “cores”/clusters of Figure 2. Most fascinating of all, both the individual-crossmatching and P2Aut master-chronology self-construction function even when (at least) 3 out of 10 of the experimental ring-width reductions were omitted! That is, the “seed” successively picked up all the series. (Table 1). In fact, the “seed” picked up one of the three the 3-of-10-omitted series even while at the highest-standard P2Aut default setting (P2YrsL t≥7.0). The significance of this missing- disturbances-irrelevance is vividly evident: The postulated disturbances required by the Disturbance-Clustering hypothesis could be quite inexact and yet be fully effective! What’s more, the P2Aut process is not dependent on the presence of any series having a complete set of disturbances. The twelve series containing omitted disturbances alone freely “come together” into a robust master chronology. Furthermore, their respective crossmatches towards this 12-member false master chronology differ only slightly (usually ~0.5-1.0 less) from those of the entire fifteen-series-ensemble, against its master chronology (as shown in Table 1). Finally, whether a series has 3 of 10 disturbances omitted (3/10), as opposed to 2 of 10 omitted (2/10), does not, by itself, predict its falling short of the gateway statistics. Thus the last-listed series, Z0240072, the only one that fails both Besancon and the crucial Skel-Chi2, is at 2/10, in contrast to the remaining three 2/10 series that pass with flying colors. At the same time, series Z023158A, despite being 3/10, does also. In fact, out of the 15 series, it ranks 11 th highest in terms of average t-value, against all the other series, in the matrix. All of this suggests that the success of series with many omissions (3/10, perhaps even more), in crossmatching, is as much governed by the vagaries of the remaining undisturbed rings as it is by the magnitude of the omitted disturbed rings. Of course, it is not expected that crude one-per-decade perturbations, for the series involved, shall satisfy every single characteristic of a good master chronology, and they do not. CDendro displays the FIN and TRN master chronologies at annual resolution, showing the mean, upper standard deviation, and lower standard deviation, Woodmorappe ◀ Tree-ring chronology shortening via disturbances ▶ 2018 ICC 663