Torch, Fall 2006

Iraqi and coalition forces have focused their efforts against the death squads and the armed militias carrying out these atrocities. The elected Iraqi government recognizes that, unless controlled, these sectarian revenge killings could result in the civil war hoped for by al-Qaida. The key to a stable Iraq is gradual expansion of the new government’s ability to provide security and effective governance, working with the U.S. and other international allies. The threats to Iraq’s future come not only from al-Qaida terrorists and Sunni militants, but from within the Shiite majority itself. Shiite Iran would very much like to have an important influence within Iraq and has funded and encouraged the formation of militias like the Mahdi Army of radical Shiite Muqtada al-Sadr. Al-Sadr is trying to create a Hezbollah-like state within Iraq, permitting him to participate politically in the new democracy of Iraq while simultaneously maintaining an armed force which can trump government control within al-Sadr’s home areas. History is important: After World War II, with no insurgency underway, it took four years for Germany to have a democratic constitution and elected government. MacArthur needed seven years to create a Japanese democracy. In three and a half years, despite ferocious resistance and suicide bombers, the Iraqis have written a constitution and elected a government. They deserve patient and determined support while they work toward a successful, stable democracy. The Bottom Line It is essential that the democratic forces in Iraq win. Permitting Shiite radicals or al-Qaida terrorists to gain control of Iraq and its oil resources would be a disaster for U.S. interests and destroy hopes of any moderate future in the Middle East. A precipitate U.S. departure from Iraq would produce just such a result. Iran Iran is ruled by a radical theocracy dedicated to leadership of the Muslim world, hegemony in the Middle East, and the destruction of Israel and the United States. (President Ahmedinejad recently led thousands in public chants of “Death to America.”) Iran is spending tens of billions of dollars on armaments and the determined pursuit of nuclear 12 TORCH / Fall 2006 Left: Militias have increased their influence in Iraq, and sectarian violence has spread throughout much of the region. The possibility of civil war between Sunni and Shiite has been close to erupting. Below: Coalition forces track down insurgents that have been launching attacks against the elected government of Iraq. TOP: MAHMUD HAMS /AFP/ GETTY IMAGES; BELOW: SUPERSTOCK