Torch, Fall 2006

the Israeli military’s aura of invincibility has been significantly damaged, perhaps encouraging others to confront Israel in the future. The Bottom Line “Land for peace” is dead. “No compromise” hard- liners are in the ascendancy, supported by a strong majority of Israeli opinion. Israeli settlements are not likely to be removed from the West Bank, as previously anticipated. A security fence will soon surround all Palestinian areas. Peace negotiations with Palestinians are unlikely for the foreseeable future. Palestinians The return of Gaza to Palestinian control was an opportunity for the Palestinian Authority to demonstrate its capacity to govern. Just a year ago, many hoped that Palestinian success in Gaza would lead to negotiations on the West Bank and continued movement toward the two-state solution envisioned by the international community. Instead, radicals continued to attack Israel from within Gaza, and the Palestinians elected as their leaders the Hamas party, which refuses to recognize Israel or any previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements. As a result, the West has withheld hundreds of millions of dollars in annual financial support to the Palestinian Authority — which is now broke. Salaries have not been paid for months, and unemployment is at more than 50 percent. Rocket attacks, attempted suicide bombings, and the kidnapping of soldiers resulted in Israeli attacks on radicals and their Gaza infrastructure. Much of the Hamas leadership was arrested and, within Gaza, firefights have broken out among competing Palestinian factions. The Bottom Line The past year has been a complete disaster for Palestinians. In addition to all the crises listed above (most of them self-inflicted), any opportunity for Palestinians to achieve an independent state has vanished from the horizon. Lebanon Hezbollah (literally the “Party of God”) was created among Lebanese Shiites in the early 1980s by the revolutionary Shiite regime in Iran. (Shiites make up about one-third of the Lebanese population.) Hezbollah preaches the eradication of Israel and is supported by Iran to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars per year. Those dollars (and numerous social programs) buy a lot of allegiance among the poor Lebanese Shiite community, while Iranian weapons and training have produced a formidable guerrilla army — as the Israelis discovered. Over the years, Hezbollah carved out for itself a “state within a state,” occupying the Israeli border, much of southern Lebanon, and the southern suburbs of Beirut. In those areas, Hezbollah, not the Lebanese government, is the authority. Hezbollah put up stronger resistance to Israel than any previous Arab force, winning itself great popularity in the Muslim world. Photos of the charismatic Hezbollah leader Nasrallah now adorn walls and T-shirts across the Middle East. Iranian President Ahmedinejad led demonstrations celebrating Hezbollah’s “great victory over Israel.” Once the fighting stopped, however, problems quickly surfaced. Israeli forces killed 500 to 700 of Hezbollah’s 3,000 fighters and destroyed much of southern Beirut as well as Shiite villages/Hezbollah strong points in southern Lebanon. (Iran quickly provided hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars for Hezbollah to hand out to its followers, to try to ensure their continuing loyalty.) 10 TORCH / Fall 2006 SAMUEL ARANDA /AFP/ GETTY IMAGES