Torch, Fall 2006

Beyond that, the terms of the UN agreement to end the fighting are problematic for Hezbollah and its anti-Israeli agenda. The Lebanese army and a strongly reinforced UN force is taking control of the Israeli border and southern Lebanon, complicating and perhaps preventing Hezbollah efforts to confront Israel directly. The UN resolution also calls (for the third time) for the disarming of Hezbollah and for an embargo against the entry of any weapons except those for the Lebanese government. As diplomats know, the devil is in the details, but if the terms of the UN agreement are carried out in coming months (and this is a big if ), Hezbollah’s current status as an independent, armed actor within Lebanon could be significantly eroded. Further, by kidnapping Israeli soldiers, Hezbollah plunged Lebanon into war and economic disaster without the consultation or approval of either the Lebanese people or the Lebanese government. Since the end of hostilities, Nasrallah publicly admitted that he did not think Israel would react so strongly to his attack on their forces — but this “oops” apology does not comfort most Lebanese. The Bottom Line Despite basking in short-term adulation within the Muslim/ Arab world, Hezbollah is under significant pressure. Most Sunni Arab states (such as Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia) are not happy that their traditional Persian (Iranian) Shiite enemies have created this armed puppet within an Arab state. The Sunni Arabs are already actively supporting both Lebanese and UN efforts to erode Hezbollah’s influence. Within Lebanon, the Christian/Sunni/Druze majority will also be delighted to undermine Hezbollah. It is conceivable, therefore, that the net result of the Israeli/Hezbollah conflict will be a substantially weakened Hezbollah and much improved Israeli security on its northern border. Iraq In recent months, the plans of al-Qaida in Iraq to provoke sectarian conflict between the majority Shiites (60 percent) and minority Sunnis (20 percent), have borne unfortunate fruit. The destruction by al-Qaida (which is Sunni) of one of the Shiites’ most important shrines provoked the desired retaliation by Shiites against Sunnis. Since then many Iraqis have been killed simply because they were from the wrong Islamic sect. Fall 2006 / TORCH 11 1989 Osama bin Laden develops the al-Qaida network. 1990 Iraq invades Kuwait. 1991 The 25-year Civil War in Lebanon ends. 1991 A U.S.-led military coalition removes Iraqi forces from Kuwait. 1994 Jordan signs a peace treaty with Israel. 1995 The U.S. imposes oil and trade sanctions against Iran. 1995 Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin is assassinated. 1996 Islamic fundamentalist Osama bin Laden is welcomed by the ruling Taliban in Afghanistan. 1999 The Israelis and Palestinians sign a revised deal aimed at reviving the Middle East peace process. 2000 Israel withdraws troops from South Lebanon. 2001 Terrorists loyal to Osama bin Laden attack the U.S. World Trade Center and the Pentagon. 2001 U.S. troops invade Afghanistan, and the Taliban flees. 2003 U.S. troops invade Iraq; Saddam Hussein is captured later in the year. 2005 Israeli forces and settlers depart, leaving Gaza in Palestinian control. 2006 The radical group Hamas wins the Palestinian elections. 2006 Palestinians from Gaza kidnap an Israeli soldier. Hezbollah crosses the border to ambush an Israeli patrol and kidnaps two soldiers. Israel retaliates against both. Adapted from the WGBH Education Foundation timeline at www.pbs.org/wgbh/globalconnections/mideast/timeline/index.html Timeline ( continued ) SUPERSTOCK SUPERSTOCK SUPERSTOCK ABID KATIB /AFP/ GETTY IMAGES