Spring 2022 By Michael Cleverly On February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine from multiple directions, with the goal of taking Kyiv, the capital city, and toppling the Ukranian government. As the war unfolds, questions arise of whether this brutal conflict could’ve been prevented and what it means for the future of the world. For months, Russian troops gathered on the border and various news companies and world leaders warned of an impending invasion. The Ukrainian and French presidents both claimed that the threat of invasion was being blown out of proportion. Multiple leaders held talks with Putin to deescalate the situation, all of which failed. The U.S. held talks with Putin and other Russian diplomats but, due to the declining relationship between Russia and the U.S., proved unsuccessful. Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, visited Putin to talk with him, which proved more fruitful than the U.S. talks but ultimately failed to reach a resolution. The U.S. and many EU countries threatened Putin with sanctions if he invaded. Post-invasion, these countries have been implementing those sanctions. Some sanctions, like the proposed exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT global banking system, require a consensus among involved countries, which might take time. Seven Russian banks have been excluded from SWIFT as part of sanctions. Banks were chosen based on their connection to the Russian government. This is only a partial removal and among the banks not excluded are those that handle transactions related to energy companies. These weren’t blocked because some European countries have purchased oil from Russia because they lack the amount they need. “Sanctions by the U.S. alone are not going to be effective,” said Dr. Christine Kim, assistant professor of International Studies at Cedarville University. “Other countries also have stakes in their relationship with Russia, so it’s very hard to have a consensus among all these American allies.” Threats of sanctions have failed to deter Putin from invading Ukraine, and they might not be as effective at hurting Russia as hoped. Russia has built up an economic cushion that will reduce the impact of sanctions, and much of its stockpile comes from the energy sector. “I think we in the United States made a major error in terms of our energy policy,” said Dr. Glen Duerr, associate professor of International Studies. “When Biden shut off access to oil and liquefied natural gas through fracking, it empowered the Russian energy companies and gave them a lot more money. I get what President Biden was trying to do. It came from a good heart of trying to improve the climate, but it was a major strategic error.” But even with the economic cushion, the Russian economy took a significant hit from sanctions causing the ruble’s value to drop below one cent. The Moscow Stock Exchange has been closed since the day after the invasion began. Russian company stocks have also stopped trading in the U.S. This economic damage is substantial, but it might not be enough to get Putin to end the war. With most of the world hostile toward Russia, it’s not likely Putin will end the war until he gets something from it. If some of the sanctions had been implemented before the invasion, the effects would’ve given Putin something to consider. Since Russia has already invaded, the only effect they can have is to shorten the war through economic damage. The conclusion of this war remains to be seen, but it’s guaranteed to be a bloody one. Although Russia has better military technology and more manpower, the Ukrainians are determined to fight. Millions of people have been fleeing Ukraine, but there are many people who have decided to stay and fight for their country. The Ukrainian government announced that anyone who wanted to get a weapon to fight for Ukraine could get one. In the months before the war began the Ukrainian military trained civilians how to fight. We’ve seen heavy resistance to Russian forces at Kyiv and various other locations. Surprisingly, some resistance has even occurred in ethnically Russian parts of Ukraine. Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Raises Questions about the Future
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