Spring 2022 RUSSIA UKRAINE KYIV MOSCOW 25 Morale on both sides will be a large factor in the war. Russia has a history of its people’s morale dropping low when wars drag on longer than expected in previous wars, and this war seems to be going in a similar direction. The Russians have attacked cities in Ukraine but have been repelled multiple times. Russian paratroopers took an airfield near Kyiv at the beginning of the war and then the Ukrainians took it back. So, Russia may be able to take cities, but they don’t seem able to hold onto them. “Russia has a long history of taking but not holding all that well,” Duerr said. Another surprising thing about this war is the approach Putin has taken. In the past, he’s focused on taking areas with Russian ethnic minorities where he might be able to argue his actions before the world. What we’re seeing now is that Putin is focusing on taking out Kyiv early on, which seems to suggest he’s either going for full annexation of Ukraine or creating a puppet state. So far none of the countries supporting Ukraine are willing to get involved militarily. This raises questions about what the future will look like. If Ukraine is left on its own and Russia is allowed to take it over without any military reaction from the world, other countries may take it as an opportunity to act on their own ambitions for expansion. “If Russia gets away with this, the whole order of world affairs since 1945 threatens to unravel a bit if it’s not met with something more than sanctions,” Duerr said. “It emboldens China, Iran, Turkey and Venezuela.” China is the country that the world is most worried about acting next. However, Duerr pointed out that China has been patient with their ambitions of taking Taiwan, and there are other countries we should watch that might act sooner. He pointed out that Turkey has ambitions to reform the Ottoman Empire under president Erdoğan. They’ve already taken parts of northern Syria and had influence in the Libyan Civil War from 2014 to 2020. But North Korea and other countries working on building up nuclear arsenals learn a different lesson. Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, in which it gave up Russian Soviet Union era nuclear missiles in exchange for recognition of the sovereignty of their borders. Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom all signed this document. Now each of these nations is involved either directly or indirectly in the war, which undermines this agreement. Russia has discarded the agreement while the U.S. and UK are trying to find a way to back Ukraine while not entering the war. The Budapest Memorandum doesn’t require the countries that signed it to come to Ukraine’s aid militarily, but Ukraine’s government does have reason to expect strong support from the U.S. and UK. Meanwhile, countries like North Korea watch Ukraine’s current plight and find yet another excuse to continue building up their nuclear arsenal instead of denuclearizing. From their perspective, Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons, and now Russia is taking them over. They see that the U.S. isn’t getting involved militarily. To North Korea and similar countries, this is proof that if they denuclearize, any support or protection the U.S. might promise could prove to be worthless. If the war ends soon with Russia failing to take over Ukraine, it will be considered a victory for democracy. If the war ends with Russia taking over Ukraine, it will change the world order we’ve known since 1945, with non-democratic countries being emboldened. “If democracy is something that we value highly,” Kim said. “Then we should’ve done more to protect democracy.” Michael Cleverley is a junior Journalism major with an Asian Studies minor and the Off-Campus Editor for Cedars. When ot studying or doing work for Cedars he likes to write, knit and hang out with friends.
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