NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL
Analysis: The Future of Libya
Oil production will not affect American gas prices; Libya’s government is biggest unknown
by Aaron Flores
T
he situation in Libya has recently
changed with the death of dictator
Moammar Gadhafi in October. This has
raised questions about what will happen next
in regards to oil production and the country’s
government.
Oil Production and Gas Prices
Students may be wondering when oil will
start flowing out of the country and how gas
prices will be affected.
Frank Jenista, professor of international
studies, said the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) still holds a mo-
nopoly on the exportation of crude oil and that
it carefully monitors the price per barrel to
correspond with international demand. This
means gas prices will not be significantly af-
fected by the events in Libya.
Libya owns some of the richest oil depos-
its in Northern Africa. Not only is oil plentiful,
but it is also of high quality. During the years of
Gadhafi’s rule, the country produced about 1.6
million barrels of oil a day, none of which went
to the United States. Relations with Gadhafi
were poor during his time in power, and the
U.S. had other countries from which it could
import oil. Most of Libya’s oil went to Europe,
specifically Italy.
The fighting that took place damaged
about 10 percent of Libya’s oil-producing in-
frastructure. Some of the platforms and wells
that remained unharmed are back in pro-
duction, and the country has begun export-
ing again. Jenista said Libya was producing
600,000 barrels of oil a day, and that produc-
tion was expected to expand to 800,000 by the
end of the year.
But Libya’s increased oil production will
not profit the people and the country if the
internal politics of the country remain in tur-
moil. The citizens of Libya saw little profit
from the oil profits under Gadhafi. Like most
dictators, Gadhafi hoarded most of the oil prof-
its for himself and his advisors. There were no
national institutions in place to keep him ac-
countable for how he spent Libya’s money. His
primary concern was exporting oil, and he only
exported enough to keep himself, his family
and his allies rich and comfortable.
Before Gadhafi’s reign, Libya was capable
of exporting as much as three million barrels
of oil a day, nearly twice as much as the coun-
try saw under its dictator. Libya is also rich
in natural gas deposits. Gadhafi neglected
development of these natural gas reserves in
favor of oil. If the new Libyan government can
tap into this wealth, things could start looking
very attractive for the formerly downtrodden
nation.
Libya’s government is perhaps the biggest
and most significant unknown heading into
the future. Gadhafi did not permit any national
institutions to govern the country — besides
himself, of course. As a result, nearly no power
structure exists in the wake of his deposition
and death.
So far, peace is being maintained by the
military forces, but there are still untamed re-
gions where tribes and their leaders maintain
order with AK-47s. Great amounts of distrust
still exist between some of the tribes, much of
it a direct result of Gadhafi’s favoring select
groups over others. In general, the country
is divided between the east and west regions,
with most of the wealth centered around Trip-
oli, Gadhafi’s seat of government.
The people of Libya enjoy a high literacy
rate and are very well educated. During the
fighting, as well as while under Gadhafi’s rule,
they demonstrated resilience, patience, and
determination in the face of hardship. The
Nov. 22 deadline for the establishment of an
interim government has passed, and no doubt
the members of that body will be making prog-
ress on a new constitution for their nation
some time in the near future.
Nothing else about the following months
is certain, however. What will the constitution
look like? Will it have provisions for freedom
of speech and the press? Will it establish an
impartial court system? How will it integrate
democracy into a culture and people who have
very little experience with self-governance?
Furthermore, al-Qaida has a strong pres-
ence in Northern Africa, and agents of radical
Islam would like nothing more than to turn
resource-rich Libya into a puppet for their
cause, following in the footsteps of nations like
Afghanistan, Iran and Lebanon.
iStockphoto.com
News websites report the death of Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi, who died in October.
The Country’s Government
More content updated daily at ReadCedars.com
13
December 2011
